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Prévision de l’impact des dépôts atmosphériques azotes et du changement climatique sur la biodiversité forestière en France : Apport de la modélisation dynamique des charges critiques azotées

Abstract : The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution was signed by different European countries to reduce the emissions and the atmospheric deposition of pollutants, and particularly to limit the noticeable impact of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on terrestrial ecosystems. The MODYCRIN project describes a modelling approach, which couples biogeochemical and ecological models. The objective is to predict the atmospheric deposition effects under climate change on forest ecosystems, particularly using the modifications observed at the understorey vegetation scale. These changes are used to calculate nitrogen critical loads that reflect ecosystems sensitivity to nitrogen atmospheric deposition. Following previous investigations, the first steps of the project aim at doing an important work to calibrate and validate the biogeochemical – ecological coupled model ForSAFE for French environmental conditions. For that purpose, data from some well-documented forest sites belonging to the French forest ICP network RENECOFOR, are used. This work was done in partnership with Swedish modellers and French ecologists. The MODYCRIN project has a main objective to enlarge the modelling approach to the country scale using the whole RENECOFOR network – i.e. 102 sites previously classified according to their EUNIS habitat class. To reach this aim, the project was focussed on ending the construction of the Table VEG for France by combining with the measured phytoecological datas from the ecological database EcoPlant (Gegout et al. 2005)), as well as the calibration of the ForSAFE model on 12 reference RENECOFOR sites, before extrapolation to the whole set of RENECOFOR sites. The parametrisation of the vegetation table was set up to perform logistic regression models, in order to predict the evolutions of a hundred of vegetation species for the French territory, under the influence of a decade of main environmental factors The calibration of the ForSAFE model on the whole set of RENECOFOR sites was performed using a large set of parameters which variations were known (measured) on a long period of time, and which are representative of the environmental conditions of the forest stations usually found on the forest network (RENECOFOR). Taking into account of these parameters allow a reliable calibration of the model for a large environmental gradient in France.
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Submitted on : Thursday, October 11, 2018 - 12:58:50 PM
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Anne Probst, Simon Rizzetto, Salim Belyazid, Jean-Claude J.-C. Gégout, Didier Alard, et al.. Prévision de l’impact des dépôts atmosphériques azotes et du changement climatique sur la biodiversité forestière en France : Apport de la modélisation dynamique des charges critiques azotées. [Contrat] 1362c0008, Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie (ADEME); Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS); Office national des forêts (ONF); AgroParisTech; Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse (France); Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse (INP Toulouse); University of Iceland; Lund University. 2017, pp.50. ⟨hal-01865373⟩

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